Another reminder and some final thoughts
Just in case you missed the heads up from yesterday (⬆️) but in any case, if you’re wondering why this is one of the more watched opinion polls for the election, you can check out the post above as well for some backstory.
The issue with opinion polls as I have always said is that they are subject to the interpreter’s interpretation. As such, there’s the saying beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder.
In other words, we all see what we want to see when it comes to the opinion polls.
For the YouGov MRP poll in 2017, there is no further history to the methodology and results of the poll. As such, it is only viewed to be “accurate” because it has a sample size of one.
Common logic will dictate that such a sample size is meaningless so are we all attaching too much significance to the accuracy of this polling data? Perhaps, maybe.
But the more important thing is whether or not markets are attaching any significance to the poll. The answer is that there is quite a strong likelihood the data will be a relevant one in affecting trading sentiment. And that is all that matters.
We can dive deeper into figuring out if and how accurate the poll this time around will be but that’s a another story for a another day.
The other thing to take note is that the release today will come at 2200 GMT. It’s pretty much the time when markets are asleep so just be mindful of thinner liquidity conditions as it may exacerbate any moves and reactions later.